The hassle being thought-about by state Democratic leaders is particularly meant to scale back the variety of Republicans in California’s congressional delegation, retaliation for the continued actions by GOP leaders in Texas to unseat Democratic representatives in its state, reportedly at Trump’s behest.
“I think this whole thing is a horrible idea all the way around … and I don’t think people fully understand the ramifications of what they’re talking about,” stated Republican redistricting professional Matt Rexroad. “Once we get to the point where we’re just doing random redistricting after every election … redistricting won’t be used as a tool to reflect voter interests. It will be used to just bludgeon minority political interests, whether it be Republican or Democrat, after every election.”
Doing so in all probability would require a statewide poll measure to scrap or briefly pause the voter-approved, unbiased California Residents Redistricting Fee charged with drawing the boundaries of congressional districts based mostly on logical geography, shared pursuits, illustration for minority communities and different sides. In 2010, Californians voted to create the fee to take partisan politics out of the redistricting course of for Congress, two years after they did so for the state Legislature.
“So they want to change the game,” he stated final week. “We can act holier-than-thou. We can sit on the sidelines, talk about the way the world should be, or we can recognize the existential nature that is this moment.”
Redistricting specialists in each events agree that reverting to partisan redrawing of congressional strains in California would make a number of GOP incumbents weak. The state’s congressional districts could possibly be reconfigured to extend the share of Democratic voters in districts at the moment represented by Republicans, or in a means that forces Republican officeholders to face off towards each other.
Rexroad sees a situation by which Republicans are so packed into districts that the occasion would have solely three protected seats. Solely 9 of the state’s 52 congressional districts are at the moment represented by the GOP.
Democratic redistricting professional Paul Mitchell stated 5 of 9 GOP-held districts could possibly be flipped. He stated Democrats are in an excellent place to realize seats due to California’s historical past of nonpartisan redistricting. In Texas, by comparability, districts already are gerrymandered to favor Republicans.
In California, “Democrats haven’t had partisan line-drawing since the ‘90s,” he stated. “So there’s all this partisan gain left on the table for decades. If you ever do crack open the map, there’s just many available to bolster” the occasion’s current grip on the delegation.
Rexroad warns that there can be unintended penalties, together with weakening protected Republican districts in Texas and resulting in a damaged system by which strains are redrawn after each election to profit whichever occasion controls the White Home or varied legislative our bodies.
Earlier than the creation of the unbiased Residents Redistricting Fee, California was just like most different states. Political districts have been created by state lawmakers of each events who typically prioritized incumbent safety and gerrymandered oddly formed districts, such because the notorious “ribbon of shame,” the place a 200-mile coastal sliver of a congressional district between Oxnard and the Monterey County line disappeared throughout excessive tide.
Former U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric Holder stated such districts are why he began the Nationwide Democratic Redistricting Committee with former President Obama and former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) in 2017.
“Because of our work, we now have the fairest national congressional map the country has seen in a generation, one that allows both parties to compete for the majority in the House,” Holder stated Wednesday at a “Stop the Texas Takeover” digital occasion hosted by the redistricting committee.
That would fall by the wayside, nevertheless, if some states crack open their redistricting course of for partisan achieve and states managed by the opposing occasion retaliate by doing to the identical.
California Democrats are contemplating making an attempt to revisit the unbiased line-drawing after President Trump and his administration urged Texans to redraw their districts in a means that in all probability would enhance the GOP’s potential to carry management of Congress in subsequent yr’s midterm election.
The Home is narrowly divided, and the occasion that wins the White Home typically loses seats within the physique two years later. The lack of a handful of GOP seats would stymie Trump’s plans, doubtlessly making him a lame duck for 2 years.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott known as for a particular session of the state Legislature that features redistricting and commenced Monday.
On Tuesday, Abbott stated the choice was prompted by a court docket resolution final yr that stated the state not has to attract “coalition districts,” that are made up of a number of minority communities.
“New maps will work toward insuring that we will maximize the ability of Texas to be able to vote for the candidate of their choice,” he stated in an interview with Fox 4 Dallas-Fort Price.
“This is shameless, shameless, the mid-decade redistricting that they’re doing at the orders of Donald Trump,” Pelosi stated Wednesday on the “Stop the Texas Takeover” occasion. “And this is what we’re doing in California. We’re saying to the Texans, ‘You shouldn’t be going down this path. We go down this path, we’ll go down together.’”
If California Democrats pursue partisan redistricting in time for subsequent yr’s midterm election, the Legislature, by which Democrats maintain a supermajority, may place the matter on the poll throughout a particular election that in all probability would happen in November. State lawmakers additionally may choose to make the change by means of laws, although that in all probability can be weak to a authorized problem.
Nonpartisan congressional redistricting was one in all then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s priorities when it was permitted by voters in 2010. Schwarzenegger hasn’t weighed in on the state doubtlessly rescinding the reform. However the director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute, which incorporates such political reforms amongst its high priorities, warned that weakening California’s system can be out of sync with the state’s values.
“We’re in a scary position with all this talk of this gerrymandering arms race between Texas and California,” stated Conyers Davis, world director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute for State and International Coverage. “It’s really a race to the bottom for voters in both states and the entire country as a whole. We should be celebrating California’s citizen redistricting commission and looking to expand that model into other states, not looking for political ways to dismember it and erode its powers.”
The state Republican Occasion, which opposed the creation of the redistricting fee, now helps the physique within the face of a proposal that may value it seats.
“To sort of start to mess with it right at this point in time, it just kind of undermines the whole independent redistricting commission that everybody has come to rely on,” stated Corrin Rankin, chairwoman of the California Republican Occasion. “And I don’t know what it will look like constitutionally.”
Requested about Texas, she demurred, saying she was targeted on California.
State Democrats, who additionally opposed the creation of the fee, cheered the potential response to Texas.
“Trump and Republicans — from D.C. to Texas — are attempting to rewrite the rules of our democracy,” stated Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Occasion. “With so much at stake, California may be left with little choice but to fight fire with fire to protect and preserve our democracy.”
Occasions employees author Taryn Luna in Sacramento contributed to this report.
