BEIRUT — After a unexpectedly cobbled collectively ceasefire between Israel and Iran took maintain on June 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu jubilantly declared that the “existential threats” of Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile arsenal had been destroyed. The “historic victory,” he mentioned, would “abide for generations.”
However practically two weeks after President Trump deployed 30,000-pound bombs and Tomahawk missiles towards Iran’s nuclear services, questions linger over how abiding that victory will show to be. At the same time as U.S. and Israeli intelligence providers proceed assessing the strikes, and the White Home insists Tehran could acquiesce to a grand cut price for peace within the area, analysts say the hostilities had been much less a finale than a prelude to the following act.
“There will be a sequel. The war remains an unfinished project, for both sides,” mentioned Bader Al-Saif, a professor of historical past at Kuwait College. Israel, he added, “wants to see the end of the Iranian regime or a more serious decapitation of its capabilities.”
For the Islamic Republic’s leaders, who’ve defied and antagonized Israel — and the U.S. — for many years, that they emerged bruised however not crushed serves as proof they need to proceed.
“Regardless of the superiority of Israeli and American firepower, they’re still there,” Al-Saif mentioned. “And they’re there for the long run.”
Israel’s 12-day marketing campaign is the primary time the long-running shadow battle between the Center East’s army superpowers exploded into open warfare, decapitating the higher echelons of Iran’s army and nuclear management. Israel’s spy service carried out elaborate sabotage operations on Iranian soil. Wave after wave of airstrikes killed lots of of individuals and turned very important installations, infrastructure and metropolis neighborhoods into piles of rubble.
Smoke rises from a command heart of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps north of Tehran on June 23, after being focused by Israel.
(ELYAS / Center East Photographs )
From the second Trump introduced the B-2 Spirit bomber strikes, he and different members of his administration have repeated the phrase “obliterated” when describing their impression.
How enduring the setback can be to Iran’s nuclear ambitions is one other matter.
Araghchi added that Iran’s “peaceful nuclear program has turned into a matter of national pride and glory” and that “people will not easily back down from enrichment.”
“One cannot obliterate the technology and science for enrichment through bombings,” Araghchi mentioned. “If there is this will on our part, and the will exists in order to once again make progress in this industry, we will be able to expeditiously repair the damages and make up for the lost time.”
Iranian officers put the loss of life toll of the struggle at 935 folks, together with 38 youngsters and 132 ladies; they didn’t specify how lots of the males had been civilians.
The U.S., European powers and Iran signed a deal in 2015 conditioning sanctions reduction on Iran limiting enrichment of uranium to three.67% (sufficient for civilian use), giving up vital quantities of its uranium stockpile and permitting the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company inspectors to watch services.
Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, saying it didn’t go far sufficient, and he imposed what he termed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran. He started his second time period with efforts to barter a brand new settlement; Israel started its assault on Iran as talks had been underway.
Consultants consider Iran nonetheless has centrifuges it manufactured earlier than the struggle however had by no means put in, in addition to a stockpile of uranium enriched to twenty% and 60%, ample for 10 warheads.
“Bottom line is that Iran has the foundational elements that it could use to reconstitute an enrichment effort,” mentioned Eric Brewer, deputy vice chairman of the Nuclear Supplies Safety Program for Nuclear Risk Initiative, a Washington assume tank.
Weaponizing that uranium is a murkier prospect, he added. Israel killed 14 veteran Iranian nuclear scientists, however the know-how is prone to have remained, Brewer mentioned.
“Iran is clearly not willing to abandon its nuclear program,” he mentioned. “It’s a question of what form that reconstituted program will take, and how long Iran needs to fulfill it.”
Individuals fold tents at an underground shelter in Tel Aviv on June 24, 2025, after the ceasefire with Iran was introduced.
(Ohad Zwigenberg / Related Press)
In the meantime, Tehran has already taken steps limiting inspectors’ entry to its nuclear program. On Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed into regulation a invoice suspending cooperation with the IAEA, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, till ensures are given for the safety of nuclear services and scientists.
The 12-member Guardian Council, half of whom are appointed by Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, accredited it the following day.
Persevering with with any enrichment is prone to be a nonstarter for Trump, who says he “without question” would bomb any Iranian rebuilding effort. The Israelis too have threatened to strike once more ought to they understand a menace.
However that calculus thrusts all sides right into a perpetual recreation of cat-and-mouse, with Iran going to ever-greater lengths to hide its actions whereas the U.S. and Israel hold looking forward to Tehran’s maneuverings.
Israel has employed the same playbook in Lebanon. Although it accepted a ceasefire with the militant group Hezbollah in November, it maintains an virtually omniscient presence over its neighbor, with a raft of drones, spies, alerts intelligence and synthetic intelligence proving efficient at sussing out Hezbollah exercise. Israel’s army has launched 1000’s of assaults focusing on any transfer by the Lebanese militant group to revive its capabilities.
“Israelis refer to it as mowing the grass, and the idea is that they can do this endlessly,” mentioned Jeffrey Lewis, an arms management specialist and professor on the Middlebury Institute of Worldwide Research in Monterey. “But I’m skeptical of the long-term success of this endeavor [with Iran] because you can’t count on that level of penetration and access being good forever.”
Certainly, Iran is a tougher goal, roughly 158 occasions bigger than Lebanon and greater than 1,000 miles farther from Israel.
Brewer, the nuclear proliferation knowledgeable, added that Iran would most likely choose to cover new services even deeper underground to defend towards U.S. “bunker buster” assaults.
“To use the analogy, to effectively mow the grass, you have to know where that grass is growing back,” he mentioned.
Iran says it should reply if the U.S. and Israel had been to strike once more. And it has proven it could precise a worth.
In the course of the struggle, it lobbed successive fusillades of ballistic missiles, and although most had been felled en route or had been destroyed by Israel’s protection community, those who bought via left destruction unseen in Israel for many years.
Well being authorities say 29 Israeli civilians had been killed and a number of other buildings had been destroyed or so broken they should be demolished. Israel’s tax authority says greater than 40,000 compensation claims have been filed.
Firefighters, rescue staff and army members work on the website of an Iranian missile strike in Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025.
(Oded Balilty / Related Press)
Additionally, maintaining Israel’s defensive web on-line isn’t any straightforward job as a result of it depends on “ferociously expensive” interceptors, Lewis added. When Israel depleted its provides, the U.S. needed to step in, firing a yr’s manufacturing run of Terminal Excessive Altitude Space Protection, or THAAD, missiles to intercept Iran’s projectiles.
“It’s almost a war of attrition, because if the Israelis wait to intercept, then they’re on the wrong side of the cost curve,” Lewis mentioned.
Negotiations with Iran are unlikely to be straightforward in a postwar environment of mistrust. In his interview, Araghchi mentioned the door to diplomacy “will never slam shut,” however he solid doubt on statements by Trump administration officers that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear program would restart as early as subsequent week.
“In order for us to decide to reengage, we will have to first ensure that America will not revert back to targeting us in a military attack during the negotiations,” Araghchi mentioned.
On the identical time, there may be little urge for food in Iran for a grand deal that — as envisioned by Trump — goals to resolve all conflicts with Israel within the area, mentioned Sanam Vakil, the director of the Center East and North Africa program on the London-based Chatham Home assume tank.
“That’s wishful thinking after a consequential war that has damaged Iran’s defense doctrine and one where Israel hasn’t seen its strategic objectives met,” Vakil mentioned.
“We’re on a time-out, and without really determined focus and deliberate diplomacy, this will be a very long intermission while both sides regroup and think about the next round.”
