For months, candidates within the race to turn out to be California’s subsequent governor had waited for a pivotal query to be settled: Will former Vice President Kamala Harris run or not?
With Harris’ announcement this week that she’s out, a brand new query arose: Who’s the front-runner now?
Due to Harris’ star energy, the reply is much from easy. For months, different candidates noticed their marketing campaign planning and fundraising undercut by the likelihood she would run, that means the race obtained an enormous reset seconds after Harris made her announcement Wednesday.
Some political observers give the nod to former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, who seems to have a small leg up over her opponents.
Porter was the one Democrat to obtain double-digit help in a number of polls when Harris was not included within the discipline.
A prodigious fundraiser whereas she was in Congress representing an Orange County district, Porter reported a robust infusion of money within the months after launching her marketing campaign in March, and mentioned she raised $250,000 within the 36 hours after Harris’ announcement.
Katie Porter, a lawyer who served as a U.S. consultant from California from 2019 to 2025, speaks on the Girls’s Caucus on the California Democratic Social gathering Conference on the Anaheim Hilton and Conference Heart in Might.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Instances)
Different candidates — together with Xavier Becerra, U.S. Secretary of Well being and Human Providers within the Biden administration and a former California legal professional basic — have additionally tried to say that, with Harris out, they’re transferring up.
Xavier Becerra, legal professional and former United States secretary of Well being and Human Providers, speaks on the labor caucus on the California Democratic Social gathering Conference on the Anaheim Hilton and Conference Heart in Might.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Instances)
Outdoors observers, nonetheless, mentioned that not one of the candidates actually stand out from the pack in the meanwhile.
“That these remaining candidates are jockeying for bragging rights about who may be the front-runner — it’s to be expected, but it’s ludicrous,” mentioned Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist who has labored on a variety of previous gubernatorial campaigns, together with for former Gov. Grey Davis.
“With Harris opting out, there will likely be no obvious front-runner among the remainder of the current field for quite some time,” South mentioned. “None of these candidates start out with statewide name recognition.”
With such a wide-open discipline, components comparable to endorsements and communication methods will probably be essential to look at, consultants mentioned. So will the candidates’ potential to lift cash and use it to broaden their attraction.
“I would start spending money on social media, on television advertising, on every single platform I could find to build up my name ID,” South mentioned, however “none of them have enough money to do that at the moment.”
Expertise and endorsements
With Harris out, will she again another person?
“Obviously if she did endorse, that would be a big plus” for whichever candidate she rallied behind, mentioned John Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna School.
Harris has lengthy relationships with a number of of the candidates within the race. A supply accustomed to her pondering instructed The Instances after Harris bowed out that she was nonetheless contemplating whether or not and how you can method the governor’s race.
Different endorsements might have an effect on the race as properly. Hours after Harris introduced her resolution, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), the influential former Home Speaker, appeared on CNN to endorse Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, whom she has recognized for years.
“We have many great candidates, one in particular Eleni Tsakopoulos, whom I support,” Pelosi mentioned, referring to Kounalakis by her maiden identify.
Eleni Kounalakis, lieutenant governor of California, speaks on the Girls’s Caucus on the California Democratic Social gathering Conference on the Anaheim Hilton and Conference Heart in Might.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Instances)
Kounalakis’ father, the rich developer Angelo Tsakopoulos, helped bankroll an unbiased expenditure committee supporting his daughter’s 2018 marketing campaign for lieutenant governor. Political observers are watching to see if he dumps cash into the same effort backing her gubernatorial marketing campaign.
Pitney mentioned Pelosi’s opinion “would carry a lot more weight” if she had been nonetheless speaker. He mentioned it “isn’t necessarily going to sway a large chunk of the electorate,” however may very well be essential if it sways Bay Space donors.
A former GOP legislative aide and nationwide social gathering staffer who renounced his membership within the Republican Social gathering the night time Trump was elected in 2016, Pitney mentioned that endorsements are removed from a figuring out think about at present’s political panorama.
“I hesitate to rule anybody out, because very often candidates seem to come out of nowhere — like Mamdani in New York City,” he mentioned, referring to the sudden rise and beautiful upset main win of 33-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani within the New York mayoral race.
Pitney added that have in authorities and administrative management additionally issues, however might additionally reduce in opposition to candidates at a time when many citizens are annoyed and wish one thing new.
Antonio Villaraigosa speaks to the Latino Caucus on the Calififornia Democratic Conference on the Anaheim Conference Heart in Might..
(Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Instances)
For instance, Antonio Villaraigosa, the previous state Meeting speaker and L.A. mayor who’s in his 70s, “obviously has a long history, but that long history is both an advantage and a disadvantage,” Pitney mentioned.
Villaraigosa has mentioned his marketing campaign is “about the future.” However voters “may not regard him as a fresh face,” Pitney mentioned.
Identify recognition and cash
None of the present candidates for governor have the identical profile as Harris. In reality, they’re broadly unknown to large swaths of the citizens.
Meaning they’ve their work reduce out for them, Pitney and South mentioned — specifically when it comes to fundraising.
South mentioned that there “is no question that the Democratic donor base has basically been sitting on their haunches waiting to see what Harris is going to do.”
However, he mentioned, he hasn’t seen any signal but that donors have picked a favourite candidate now that she’s out, both — which is an issue for candidates with little or no identify recognition.
“None of these candidates in the remaining field with Harris out have enough money in the bank to run a statewide campaign for governor,” he mentioned.
South mentioned that would change if Kounalakis will get one other main infusion of money from her father and as soon as once more faucets her private wealth.
On the similar time, there is also a “huge blowback” from that form of splashy household spending, South mentioned, particularly if Kounalakis’ opponents pounced on it as distasteful.
“We have not tended in this state to elect moneyed people who try to buy the governor’s race,” he mentioned.
South mentioned he’s watching to see if huge Bay Space donors determine to again Porter “because of her profile as a progressive.”
Los Angeles developer and 2022 mayoral candidate Rick Caruso “could be a force” if he had been to enter the race, Pitney mentioned, as a result of “he has prominence in Southern California and also has a lot of money.”
Fundraising studies
The latest fundraising studies, which had been due Thursday night time, shine a light-weight on candidates’ coffers — however solely by the top of June, properly earlier than Harris dropped out.
The Democrats who don’t have the potential to self-fund their campaigns reported having thousands and thousands of {dollars} in money readily available as of June 30, together with some who transferred cash from prior marketing campaign committees to their gubernatorial accounts.
Former legislative chief Toni Atkins reported having $4.3 million within the marketing campaign, whereas elevating $648,000 and spending $549,000 within the first six months of this yr.
Gubernatorial candidate Toni Atkins speaks to supporters on the California Democratic Conference on the Anaheim Conference Heart in Might.
(Carlin Stiehl/Los Angeles Instances)
Villaraigosa raised $1.1 million and spent $550,000 this yr, however reported $3.3 million money readily available based mostly on fundraising he did final yr.
Becerra had $2.1 million within the financial institution after elevating $2.5 million and spending $449,000 within the first six months of the yr.
Porter reported elevating $2.5 million and spending $449,000 since launching her marketing campaign in March. She mentioned she has $2.1 million within the financial institution.
In contrast to the opposite candidates, Porter’s marketing campaign revealed her fundraising as a result of her submitting on the state disclosure web site didn’t present any greenback figures.
Spokesman Nathan Click on mentioned her variety of small-dollar donors crashed the state’s system, and that that they had been working with state officers to get the paperwork displayed on the secretary of state’s web site all day Friday. He mentioned most of Porter’s 34,000 donors contributed lower than $200 every.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco reported elevating $1.6 million and spending $609,000 this yr, leaving him with $1 million within the financial institution.
Just a few candidates reported mediocre fundraising numbers, however have private wealth they’ll draw on.
Kounalakis raised simply over $100,000 and spent practically 3 times as a lot in the course of the first half of this yr. She has greater than $4.6 million readily available and thousands and thousands extra in her lieutenant governor marketing campaign account, though a few of that cash can’t be transferred due to marketing campaign finance guidelines.
Businessman Stephen J. Cloobeck, a Los Angeles Democrat, raised about $160,000 and spent $1.5 million — together with greater than $1 million on consultants. He had about $729,000 readily available on the finish of the interval. He additionally mentioned he made a $10-million contribution Friday that he mentioned “turbocharged” his marketing campaign.
Philanthropist and businessman Stephen Cloobeck, proper, takes a photograph with a supporter after talking about his candidacy for California governor in the course of the labor caucus on the California Democratic Social gathering Conference on the Anaheim Hilton and Conference Heart in Might.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Instances)
“One of my many advantages is that I’m not a politician and I am not compromised,” Cloobeck mentioned.
On the lowest finish of the fundraising had been former state controller Betty Yee, who raised virtually $238,000 and spent $255,000, with $637,000 readily available; and state colleges superintendent Tony Thurmond, who raised about $70,000, spent about $180,000 and had virtually $560,000 readily available.
Each Yee and Thurmond instructed The Instances final month that fundraising had slowed whereas Democratic donors waited on Harris to decide.
