1 / 4 of Latinos who supported President Donald Trump within the November election are usually not assured to vote for Republicans within the 2026 midterm elections, in line with a brand new nationwide ballot by Equis, a number one analysis and polling group.
Final week Equis, alongside progressive assume tank Knowledge for Progress, launched a July memo that summarized key findings from a nationwide ballot of 1,614 registered voters, performed between July 7 and July 17.
This time-frame coincides with some notable turning factors in politics: particularly, when Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” into regulation, in addition to his execution of mass deportations and controversial dealing with of the Epstein information.
Respondents have been requested, “If the 2026 election for United States Congress were held today, for whom would you vote?” Solely 27% replied that they might vote for a Republican candidate, marking a major political social gathering drop from the 45% who mentioned they voted for Donald Trump within the 2024 presidential election.
1 / 4 of these polled mentioned they weren’t positive whom they might vote for (16%), would vote for another person (5%), or wouldn’t vote in any respect (4%).
This shaky political alignment comes at a crucial time for Republicans, who’re banking on continuous Latino help in 2026 — particularly as Texas Republicans plan to flip 5 blue seats underneath a newly proposed congressional map.
The Equis examine additionally discovered that 63% of Latinos disapproved of Trump’s job as president in July, a slight uptick from polling numbers in Might, when 60% disapproved. This ranking appears to replicate broader sentiments concerning the state of the U.S. financial system: 64% of Latinos rated the financial system as “somewhat or very poor,” whereas solely 34% considered it as “somewhat or very good.”
Nonetheless, a disapproval of Trump doesn’t imply Latinos have rushed to again the Democratic Social gathering. Half the Latinos polled mentioned Democrats care extra about folks like them, versus the 25% who mentioned Republicans care extra. In the meantime, 17% mentioned they imagine that neither social gathering cares.
Swing voters — together with those that Equis calls “Biden defectors,” or voters who elected Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 — are twice as more likely to say that neither social gathering cares about folks like them (38%).
“Growing dissatisfaction with Trump offers Democrats an opportunity, but only if they are willing to capitalize on it,” the July memo states.
Total, Trump’s nationwide approval rankings are taking a nosedive, in line with combination polling by the New York Instances, which notes that Trump’s strategy to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation has angered his base.
On Tuesday, the Home Oversight Committee subpoenaed the Justice Division for the information; lawmakers imagine they may implicate Trump and different former prime officers within the sex-trafficking investigation.
Trump’s anti-immigration insurance policies have additionally doubtless shifted his recognition. Early July Gallup polling revealed that Individuals have grown extra constructive towards immigration — 79% of Individuals say immigration is a “good thing” for the nation, which marks a 64% enhance from final 12 months and a 25-year document excessive.
